Historically, James Bay summers are cooler than those experienced by other microclimates of the Saanich Peninsula. This can be attributed primarily to the dominant pattern of onshore and relatively cool southwest sea breezes caused by higher barometric readings over the ocean. For example, the 30-year normal (1971 – 2000) July maximum temperature at Victoria International airport is 21.9 °C, while the average of July 2005 – July 2008 maximums from James Bay Community School is 18.4 °C. Today, however (August 5, 2008), we are experiencing temperatures in the mid twenties, produced by the reverse of this onshore flow: a large ridge of high pressure positioned over the BC interior drives warm northeasterly winds over the Saanich Peninsula.

It is also of interest to note that as I write, Lochside Elementary School in north Saanich is experiencing an 11 Km/hr wind from the NNE, as expected, while James Bay Community School is measuring a wind of 3 Km/hr from the south: a very good example that elements of our microclimate, in this case diurnal onshore flow, can frequently dominate large-scale (macro) weather patterns.

But have James Bay summers actually cooled over the past couple of years? Analyzing the short weather record at James Bay Community School reveals an average maximum temperature for the month of July 2005 of 18.87 °C, compared to 18.19 °C for July 2008. Not a huge difference, and definitely not statistically significant: but enough to prompt further investigation.

Figure 1
Click image for larger view

Climate variability in BC is strongly influenced by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This NASA Earth Observatory image (Figure 1) depicts the sea surface temperature anomaly between April 14 – 21, 2008. Measured by a scanning radiometer and compared to baseline data collected between 1985 – 1997, warmer than normal areas appear red, cooler than normal blue, and average are white. Clearly visible are the lingering effect of the year-old La Niña and a classic feature of the cool phase of the PDO: cooler water off the coast of north America wrapping around a core of warmer water. Dr. Steven R. Hare, of the University of Washington, first coined the term PDO in 1997 to describe an extensive oscillation of sea surface temperature in the northern Pacific Ocean that varies on a multi-decadal time scale. The other large-scale climate driver is ENSO, a tropical Pacific phenomenon representing the largest climate signal next to the seasonal cycle, and possessing two distinct phases: El Niño the warm phase, and La Niña, the cool phase. Alternation between El Niño and La Niña events is unpredictable, normally occurring every 3 – 7 years, with the individual events lasting 6 – 18 months.

Figure 2
Click image for larger view

In contrast, the PDO can remain in the same warm or cool phase for 20 or 30 years, with the last warm phase, which began in 1977, shifting to the cool phase very recently. The accompanying graph (Figure 2) depicts anomalous climate conditions associated with the positive phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and PDO modes since 1900. According to Bill Patzert, an oceanographer and climatologist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL): “The persistence of this large-scale pattern (in 2008) tells us there is much more than an isolated La Niña occurring in the Pacific Ocean.” This cool phase of the PDO will have significant ramifications. It will intensify La Niña events, moderate the impact El Niño events, significantly affect the productivity of marine ecosystems, and alter global land temperature patterns — conceivably cooling James Bay slightly for the foreseeable future. Recent research by Dr.’s Goshit and Malanson at the University of Iowa supports this view, identifying a high positive correlation with the PDO and winter temperatures in the Northwestern US.

However, Dr. William Hsieh, an eminent scholar at UBC’s Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences, cautioned against speculating about the connection between the PDO and weather in BC: "The long-term behavior of the PDO is presently not all that clear, unlike the 1950s to 1970s, when it was cold, and late 1980s to late 1990s when it was warm." Hsieh confirmed that the PDO is in a cold phase, but that “there is no clear evidence to link that to atmospheric temperatures.” A high positive correlation between temperature and the PDO can indeed indicate a causal relationship, but there could exist other underlying factors of which we are unaware.

Figure 3
Click image for larger view

If lower sea surface temperatures (SST) off the coast of North America, which characterize the cool mode of the PDO, do indeed translate into somewhat cooler, albeit muted, local and regional temperatures, the longer-term climate change signal becomes masked — more difficult to detect and quantify (Figure 3). Climate scientist and oceanographer Josh Willis of JPL concludes that: “These natural climate phenomena can sometimes hide global warming caused by human activities. Or they can have the opposite effect of accentuating it.” This underscores the importance of collecting consistent and long-term weather records, as only data records that span at least one full cycle of the PDO will reveal the coherent “signal” of climate change that is contained within all natural climate variability.

References
BC Ministry of Environment: http://www.env.gov.bc.ca/air/climate/indicat/appendix.html
BC Climate: Rod Chilton: http://www.bcclimate.com
Goshit, Sunday D. and George P. Malanson. “Patterns of Correlation between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Climate of Glacier National Park, MT.” Department of Geography, University of Iowa. In preparation.
http://www.widernet.org/sunday/researchpaper.htm
Hare, Stephen R. and Nathan J. Mantua. “An historical narrative on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, interdecadal climate variability and ecosystem impacts.” 20th NE Pacific Pink and Chum workshop Seattle, WA, 22 March 2001.
http://www.iphc.washington.edu/Staff/hare/html/papers/pcworkshop/pcworkshop.pdf
NASA Earth Observatory: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov
Victoria Weather Network: http://www.victoriaweather.ca/

Figures
1. Courtesy NASA – Earth Observatory
2. Courtesy Stephen R. Hare, University of Washington: Adapted and updated from Mantua et al. (1997)
3. Courtesy Canadian Institute for Climate Studies

Community building and sustainable living are two ideas that few people can quarrel with, but when it comes down to it most of us just don't have a clue where to start. Well now there is a new group in James Bay that is working to bring these concepts down to Earth by bringing people together, online and off, to share simple and practical techniques for making a more sustainable and livable James Bay.

In early June the James Bay Sustainability Commons (JBSC) launched their website and blog at a well-attended public meeting held at Moka House, Shoal Point Fisherman's Wharf. Hosted by members Colleen Woods, Linda Chan, Bill Wilson, Stan Horner, Joyce Jason, and Fred and Heather Gonneville, they described in detail the mandate, mission statement of the JBSC and gave a preview of their website, while guest speaker Kris Obrigewitsch, of R~Earth, introduced us to composting as a landfill diversion strategy.

Last week (July 10), the JBSC held their second meeting at James Bay New Horizons, 234 Menzies Street. Guest speaker Paula Sobie of City Harvest spoke to a full house about converting urban lawns into food producing gardens.

Inspired by a discussion course on Choices for Sustainable Living offered by The Canadian Earth Institute, an affiliate of the Northwest Earth Institute in Portland, the mandate of the JBSC is to promote environmentally sustainable choices in James Bay. While a sense of community is at the core of all efforts to strengthen and build community, a sustainable community must constantly adjust to meet the current economic and social needs of its residents while ensuring that adequate resources remain for future generations.

Media headlines and an abundance of scientific research papers published in peer-reviewed journals attest to our changing climate: the 4,500 year-old Ward Hunt Ice Shelf is disintegrating; the permafrost is melting; retired entomologist Bob Duncan is growing lemons in North Saanich — they are flourishing; our polar bears’ world is disappearing; BC’s forests are now a net source of carbon, not a sink.

In 2005, 1,300 experts from 95 countries released the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment warning, “a majority of the life-supporting ecosystems on our planet are under severe stress.” To further elevate this sense of urgency, Dr. Andrew Weaver recently expressed in the Times Colonist that, “We know the climate has continued to warm…it takes time for people to wake up and smell the roses.” The University of Victoria climatologist and recipient of the shared 2007 Nobel Peace Prize awarded to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), also warned in a March 2007 Winnipeg lecture that “massive climate change can only be averted if we reduce our CO₂ emissions by 60 – 90% by 2050.”

The magnitude and accelerating pace of these large-scale climate changes can understandably fuel environmental fatigue: but community-based proactive initiatives can significantly offset this fatigue by focusing on local results-based projects that reduce our carbon footprint, and by promoting neighbourhood climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Guided by the principles of Reduce, Recycle, Repair and Re-Use, the JBSC will engage the community and raise awareness of the importance of practicing and learning about sustainability by developing an online resource, highlighting local sustainability projects and initiatives, and supporting sustainability by collaborating with individuals and other local or external organizations with compatible goals.

The JBSC website will provide a forum where local citizens can find or make suggestions for relevant resources related to the practice of sustainability in the James Bay area and post their own sustainability projects. In addition JamesBay.org is proud to host the official JBSC discussion forum. This online resource will allow the community to participate in discussions related to sustainability, find out about future speakers or tours, and provide other opportunities to network.

Included among the JBSC local sustainability initiatives are: growing and buying food locally, conserving water, buying or consigning second hand goods, selecting goods with less packaging that are produced with a minimum of energy consumption, biking, car-sharing, saving seeds for future crops, removing lawns to grow food, composting kitchen waste, and repairing items for re-use or trade.

For more information about the James Bay Sustainability Commons, or to find out about our future meetings please contact jamesbaysustainability@gmail.com or visit their website at: http://jbsc.seedwiki.com/.

Please note that all are welcome to attend the next JBSC presentation August 14, 7:30 – 8:15 p.m. at James Bay New Horizons, 234 Menzies Street: Guest Speaker Geoff Johnson who will be presenting about growing food in containers on apartment balconies. For more information please contact jamesbaysustainability@gmail.com or Linda at 380-6383.

Level Ground Trading will provide Fair trade coffee.

Resources
R~Earth: http://www.r-earth.com/
International Composting Corporation: http://www.internationalcomposting.com/
Composting for Apartment Dwellers: http://www.perc.ca/PEN/1994-07-08/king.html/
Canadian Earth Institute: http://www.canadianearthinstitute.org/
Centre for Sustainable Community Development: http://www.sfu.ca/cscd/
City Harvest: http://www.cityharvest.ca/

Except where otherwise noted, this content is licensed under a Creative Commons License.